2008 Caulfield Cup Preview

This year’s Caulfield Cup is a wide open affair although the build-up to the big race has been all about one horse – Weekend Hussler – just as it was about Maldivian prior to last year’s race.

The Hussler was right on track and a raging favourite for the Caulfield classic until his last start failure in the Turnbull Stakes where he ran eighth at his first try at 2000m. The gelding failed to quicken in the straight but enjoyed little luck after drawing a wide gate and racing wide, so the performance proved an inconclusive picture of whether he’ll stay the Cup distance of 2400m.

Sydney Ratings expert Dominic Beirne thinks the picture is a littler clearer though, saying in the Melbourne press this week that there’s ‘zero evidence that Weekend Hussler can stay’.

He also points out that even at his last victory, over 1800m in the Underwood Stakes two starts back; the four-year-old ran the equal slowest last 600m and 200m of the day’s winners.

Under the topweight of 57kg in the time-honoured handicap, the horse will need to be at his absolute best although his trainer Ross McDonald knows how to train a Cup winner, having won the race in 1981 with 50-1 shot Imposera.

Only one four-year-old – Gay Icarus with 58kg in 1971 – has carried more weight to win the cup although Weekend Hussler returns to his home track Caulfield where he has an imposing record of four wins and a second from five starts.

To avoid trouble in running, Hussler may go forward after jumping from barrier 11 and, if so, is likely to contend with last year’s heartbreak story Maldivian for the early lead.

The Mark Kavanagh trained gelding was near even money favourite for the race before he opened up a deep cut on his neck in a pre-race barrier mishap and had to be sensationally scratched.

The horse carries 56.5kg – 3.5kg more than he would have last year – and has yet to win this campaign although he hasn’t been far away at last three starts before fading late. Last year may have been his year but he’ll be a sentimental favourite of many.

Weekend Hussler’s last start-conqueror was Littorio. The four-year old may have won just one race, a Sale maiden, before his win in the Turnbull Stakes, but he ran 3rd in both the VRC and the AJC Derbies last season, proving his liking for the Cup distance. Indeed these defeats may prove a blessing in disguise as Littorio carries 1.5kg less than AJC Derby winner Nom de Jeu on Saturday.

Historically the Nigel Blackiston trained gelding has plenty going for it. Four-year olds have won eight out of the last twelve Caulfield Cups and the age group has been the most successful of all ages in the history of the race.

Sky Heights, Northerly and Elvstroem have all won the Cup in the last decade after taking out the Turnbull at their previous start. While his reputation may not yet rival the horse they called ‘Elvis’, Littorio has won or been placed in all three of his lead-up races – the Turnbull, Underwood and Makybe Diva Stakes races – just as Elvstroem was in the same three races en route to victory in 2004.

Trainer Danny O’Brien has three runners in the race, including last year’s runner-up, Douro Valley and winner Master O’Reilly. The trainer can’t split them so Douro Valley looks better value given he meets his stablemate 4kg better off for last year and is backing up from a win in the Group One WFA Yalumba Stakes (2000m) last weekend.

Master O’Reilly is also weighted right up to his best in attempting to become the first horse since the great Rising Fast in 1954-55 to win two straight cups. He will no doubt run the trip but is having just his third start this campaign, suggesting he may targeting the Melbourne Cup and not be as forward in his preparation as last year.

A trio of New Zealand horses – Red Ruler, Nom du Jeu and Boundless – are also well in the market after finishing second, third and fourth last start behind Cox Plate favourite Princess Coup New Zealand’s richest race, the Group One Kelt Capital Stakes (2000m).

Four-year-old mare Boundless looks the pick of the bunch with this year’s AJC Derby winner Nom du Jeu having drawn barrier 20 amid continuing reports that the horse has failed to settle well in Melbourne.

Others in the race are the lightweight David Hayes trained duo Zagreb and Guillotine, although the latter will have to overcome a horror outside barrier which clearly disappointed his trainer and the former will need some luck coming from the back of the field.

Last year’s fifth place-getter in the Melbourne Cup, Dolphin Jo is also a chance at odds after clinching his spot in the race by winning the Winning Edge Stakes – the same race which Master O’Reilly won last year – over the Cup distance last Saturday.

The only international runners – All the Good and Mad Rush – have attracted little fanfare and found few supporters since arriving in Australia. Champion hoop and four-time race winner Damien Oliver will ride Mad Rush so he must be respected, particularly coming out of the Luca Cumani stable who trained Purple Moon to second in last year’s Melbourne Cup.